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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 6 – Detroit Lions 15

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP