NE @ CLE — 4th & Data

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Cleveland Browns

2-4 HC Kevin Stefanski

Sunday 2022-10-16 · 13:00 ET FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

54.7%

CLE

45.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

NE offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
CLE defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
NE defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Jacoby Brissett (CLE): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CLE offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 24 17–31

–

CLE 22 15–29

Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

NE

Josh Uche LB Out Hamstring

Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Hamstring

Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee

Lawrence Guy DT Questionable Shoulder

Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring

Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle

Mac Jones QB Questionable Ankle

Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Thumb

Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Knee

Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Ankle

CLE

Jadeveon Clowney DE Out ankle, knee, elbow

Joe Haeg T Out Concussion

Denzel Ward CB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 38

–

CLE 15

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:34 FG NE (7:34) 6-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – CLE 0
Q1 03:04 FG CLE (3:04) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NE 3 – CLE 3
Q2 03:30 TD NE (3:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – CLE 3
Q2 00:30 FG CLE (:30) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NE 10 – CLE 6
Q3 11:25 TD NE (11:25) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 11-T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – CLE 6
Q3 05:39 TD NE (5:39) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – CLE 6
Q4 14:39 FG CLE (14:39) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NE 24 – CLE 9
Q4 06:22 TD CLE (6:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – CLE 15
Q4 04:32 TD NE (4:32) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 11-T.Thornton left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 30 – CLE 15
Q4 03:45 TD NE (3:45) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37 – CLE 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.13 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

(7:34) 6-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

(3:04) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 18

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

(14:00) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett right guard to NE 18 for no gain (9-M.Judon).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(11:41) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

(7:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 13 for 8 yards (43-J.Johnson; 51-J.Kunaszyk).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 29

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%

(:30) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(9:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NE 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 39 for 16 yards (30-D.Johnson).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(7:20) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CLE 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(4:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 43 for 11 yards (29-H.Miller).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(2:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-C.Rogers to CLE 19 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 70%

(14:39) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62%

(7:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at NE 20 for 37 yards.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 15

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

(6:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 66 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 40%

(2:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to NE 44 for 22 yards (26-S.Wade) [58-A.Jennings].
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 37 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 60%

(1:53) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 10-A.Schwartz.
See the full breakdown →

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