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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NE
47.3%
CLE
52.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (CLE): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
CLE 24
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NE

Josh Uche LB Out Hamstring
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Hamstring
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Lawrence Guy DT Questionable Shoulder
Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Mac Jones QB Questionable Ankle
Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Thumb
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Knee
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Ankle

CLE

Jadeveon Clowney DE Out ankle, knee, elbow
Joe Haeg T Out Concussion
Denzel Ward CB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 38
–
CLE 15

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:34 FG NE (7:34) 6-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – CLE 0
  • Q1 03:04 FG CLE (3:04) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NE 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 03:30 TD NE (3:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:30 FG CLE (:30) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NE 10 – CLE 6
  • Q3 11:25 TD NE (11:25) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 11-T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – CLE 6
  • Q3 05:39 TD NE (5:39) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – CLE 6
  • Q4 14:39 FG CLE (14:39) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NE 24 – CLE 9
  • Q4 06:22 TD CLE (6:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – CLE 15
  • Q4 04:32 TD NE (4:32) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 11-T.Thornton left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 30 – CLE 15
  • Q4 03:45 TD NE (3:45) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37 – CLE 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.13 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:34) 6-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

    (3:04) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (14:00) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett right guard to NE 18 for no gain (9-M.Judon).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:41) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (7:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 13 for 8 yards (43-J.Johnson; 51-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%

    (:30) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NE 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 39 for 16 yards (30-D.Johnson).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:20) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CLE 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 43 for 11 yards (29-H.Miller).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-C.Rogers to CLE 19 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 71%

    (14:39) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at NE 20 for 37 yards.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to NE 44 for 22 yards (26-S.Wade) [58-A.Jennings].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 61%

    (1:53) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 10-A.Schwartz.