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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 6-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.13 EP