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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 13 for 8 yards (43-J.Johnson; 51-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model