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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 3 at the 37
Cleveland Browns 15 – New England Patriots 38
What Actually Happened
(1:53) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 10-A.Schwartz.
The Three Options
GO
+0.85 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.69 EP
- 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.19 EP
KICK
+0.59 EP
- 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
- 40% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
