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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 18
Cleveland Browns 3 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(14:00) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett right guard to NE 18 for no gain (9-M.Judon).
The Three Options
GO
+3.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
- 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP
KICK
+2.03 EP
- 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
- 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT
+0.19 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
