4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 9 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.13 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model