Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 58

New England Patriots 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

(11:41) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.79 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model