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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.48 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP