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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

BUF
54.4%
KC
45.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.253 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.308 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.247 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 27
–
KC 25
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BUF

Jake Kumerow WR Out Ankle
Jordan Phillips DE Questionable Hamstring

KC

Bryan Cook S Out Concussion
Rashad Fenton CB Out Hamstring
Tershawn Wharton DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 24
–
KC 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:36 FG BUF (13:36) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – KC 0
  • Q2 11:44 TD KC (11:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 00:22 TD BUF (:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – KC 7
  • Q2 00:01 FG KC (:01) 7-H.Butker 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 10 – KC 10
  • Q3 07:08 TD BUF (7:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – KC 10
  • Q3 02:50 TD KC (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Oliver]. BUF 17 – KC 16
  • Q4 09:53 FG KC (9:53) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 17 – KC 20
  • Q4 01:09 TD BUF (1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – KC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 95%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to BUF 9 for 6 yards (7-T.Johnson).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (13:36) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (6:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 6-I.McKenzie. BUF-79-S.Brown was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (4:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to BUF 31, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:35) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to KC 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 24-S.Moore to KC 27 for 6 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BUF 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 7 for no gain (48-C.Christiansen). PENALTY on BUF-44-T.Matakevich, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at BUF 7.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 72%

    (10:20) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 39%

    (14:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs [99-K.Saunders].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (9:53) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:43) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to BUF 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 24 for 6 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 76%

    (3:44) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 35 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark, 47-D.Harris).