Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(3:35) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to KC 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 24-S.Moore to KC 27 for 6 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.85 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model