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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model