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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 6-I.McKenzie. BUF-79-S.Brown was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model