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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to BUF 31, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.32 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP