Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BUF 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 7 for no gain (48-C.Christiansen). PENALTY on BUF-44-T.Matakevich, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at BUF 7.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.84 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model