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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model