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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model