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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

LAC
57.8%
HOU
42.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.130 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.145 EPA/dropback (LAC starting Justin Herbert in place of Justin Herbery)
  • LAC offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Hamstring
Corey Linsley C Questionable Knee
Donald Parham TE Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Austin Deculus T Out Ankle
Brevin Jordan TE Out Ankle
Kurt Hinish DT Questionable Foot
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Back
Isaac Yiadom CB Questionable Thigh
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 34
–
HOU 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:04 TD LAC (12:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 7-G.Everett for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 13:02 TD LAC (13:02) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 10:07 TD LAC (10:07) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – HOU 0
  • Q2 10:00 TD HOU (10:00) 31-D.Pierce right end for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 21 – HOU 6
  • Q2 04:38 FG LAC (4:38) 6-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 24 – HOU 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 27 – HOU 7
  • Q3 01:17 TD HOU (1:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 28-R.Burkhead for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – HOU 13
  • Q4 10:08 TD HOU (10:08) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – HOU 20
  • Q4 08:34 FG HOU (8:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. LAC 27 – HOU 24
  • Q4 02:34 TD LAC (2:34) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 33 – HOU 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:39) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-D.King. PENALTY on LAC-43-M.Davis, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 84%

    (2:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to LAC 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 27 for 12 yards (53-B.Cashman).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (4:38) 6-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 88%

    (1:01) 10-D.Mills sacked at LAC 32 for -8 yards (52-K.Mack).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (:04) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:35) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to HOU 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 47%

    (5:52) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-D.King to HOU 13 for 4 yards (83-M.Bandy).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:07) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-D.King to HOU 15 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann; 94-C.Rumph). PENALTY on HOU-35-G.Arnold, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 14.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (8:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 81 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle intended for 83-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan at HOU 46. 23-B.Callahan to HOU 37 for 9 yards. PENALTY on HOU-59-K.Green, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 37. Penalty on HOU-59-K.Green, Offensive Holding, declined.