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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 28

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model