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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to HOU 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.37 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP