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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model