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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 24
Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 24
What Actually Happened
(1:01) 10-D.Mills sacked at LAC 32 for -8 yards (52-K.Mack).
The Three Options
GO
+2.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.66 EP
KICK
+1.81 EP
- 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT
+0.02 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
