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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 22

Houston Texans 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model