Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-D.King. PENALTY on LAC-43-M.Davis, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.56 EP
52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model