4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-D.King to HOU 13 for 4 yards (83-M.Bandy).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.27 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP