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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

JAX
36.2%
PHI
63.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.103 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

JAX

K'Lavon Chaisson LB Questionable Ankle
Shaquill Griffin CB Questionable Hip
Zay Jones WR Questionable Ankle
Cole Van Lanen G Questionable Hamstring

PHI

Avonte Maddox CB Out Ankle
Boston Scott RB Out Rib

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 21
–
PHI 29

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:30 TD JAX (11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 03:56 TD JAX (3:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – PHI 0
  • Q2 09:20 TD PHI (9:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – PHI 6
  • Q2 03:59 TD PHI (3:59) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – PHI 13
  • Q2 00:30 TD PHI (:30) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – PHI 20
  • Q4 13:45 FG PHI (13:45) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. JAX 14 – PHI 23
  • Q4 08:55 TD PHI (8:55) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – PHI 29
  • Q4 07:26 TD JAX (7:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – PHI 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 18-B.Covey to PHI 21 for 2 yards (42-A.Wingard, 6-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:51) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 33 for 3 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris; 41-J.Allen).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 17%

    (8:29) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 48%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown [41-J.Allen].

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 64%

    (13:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at PHI 48 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, touched at PHI 45, RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at PHI 43.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (1:10) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to JAX 10 for 2 yards (41-J.Allen).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (12:53) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to JAX 9, Center-45-R.Lovato. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at JAX 17 for 8 yards (3-Z.Pascal).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to PHI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:51) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to JAX 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 28 for no gain (21-A.Chachere).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (13:45) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 89%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Brown (32-T.Campbell).