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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 12
Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14
What Actually Happened
(1:10) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to JAX 10 for 2 yards (41-J.Allen).
The Three Options
GO
+3.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.96 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 12, worth +0.19 EP
KICK
+2.31 EP
- 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT
+0.22 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
