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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 18-B.Covey to PHI 21 for 2 yards (42-A.Wingard, 6-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model