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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Brown (32-T.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.14 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP