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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at PHI 48 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, touched at PHI 45, RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at PHI 43.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model