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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(9:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 3, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model