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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 33 for 3 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris; 41-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.01 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model