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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NE
57.3%
PIT
42.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Mitch Trubisky (PIT) -0.145 vs Mac Jones (NE) +0.132 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Mitch Trubisky (PIT) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
PIT 21
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NE

Joshuah Bledsoe S Questionable Groin
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Thumb
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Ribs
Pierre Strong RB Questionable Shoulder
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Ankle

PIT

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 17
–
PIT 14

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:46 FG NE (6:46) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – PIT 0
  • Q2 08:38 FG PIT (8:38) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. NE 3 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:30 TD NE (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – PIT 3
  • Q3 05:47 FG PIT (5:47) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. NE 10 – PIT 6
  • Q3 02:50 TD NE (2:50) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – PIT 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 17 – PIT 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (6:46) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (8:38) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:33) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:19) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to NE 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 27-M.Bryant to NE 26 for 16 yards (27-M.Allen).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%

    (9:21) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 72%

    (5:47) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:06) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to PIT 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-G.Olszewski MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at PIT 20. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 55%

    (10:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to PIT 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-58-A.Jennings.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to NE 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 27-M.Bryant to 50 for 5 yards (41-R.Spillane).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 50%

    (8:11) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:41) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to NE 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 27-M.Bryant to NE 30 for no gain (13-M.Boykin).