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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.38 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model