Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model