Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 3

(3:19) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to NE 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 27-M.Bryant to NE 26 for 16 yards (27-M.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.99 EP
61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model