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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to NE 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 27-M.Bryant to NE 30 for no gain (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP