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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to NE 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 27-M.Bryant to 50 for 5 yards (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model