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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 58

New England Patriots 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.18 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP