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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 34

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model