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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

IND
60.8%
JAX
39.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.095 vs Matt Ryan (IND) -0.046 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 23
–
JAX 19
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

IND

Alec Pierce WR Out Concussion
Shaquille Leonard LB Out Back
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Quadricep
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Hip
Kenny Moore CB Questionable Hip

JAX

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 0
–
JAX 24

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:27 TD JAX (2:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 08:02 TD JAX (8:02) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – JAX 13
  • Q2 01:48 FG JAX (1:48) 10-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 0 – JAX 17
  • Q3 00:22 TD JAX (:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – JAX 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%

    (8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at IND 39 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:09) 6-M.Haack punts 41 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:39) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 44, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-46-R.Matiscik.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:45) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for 12 yards (41-G.Stuard; 20-N.Cross).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:56) 6-M.Haack punts 44 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 25 for -5 yards (38-T.Brown).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 68%

    (1:48) 10-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:18) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 25%

    (10:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:10) 6-M.Haack punts 51 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-34-I.Rodgers.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (10:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 17-M.Strachan (26-S.Griffin).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to IND 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee to IND 33 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard; 48-C.Muma).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (6:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Patmon (2-R.Jenkins) [23-F.Oluokun].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 47, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at JAX 42 for 11 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 29%

    (2:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at IND 13.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.74 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%

    (:29) 1-T.Etienne right end to IND 25 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed).