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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 17-M.Strachan (26-S.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP