Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 84

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(13:39) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 44, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-46-R.Matiscik.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.07 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 84, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model