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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to IND 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee to IND 33 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard; 48-C.Muma).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.08 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP