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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 10-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model