4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model