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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 47, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at JAX 42 for 11 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.46 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model