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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:09) 6-M.Haack punts 41 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model