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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CIN
47.6%
DAL
52.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Cooper Rush (DAL): -0.092 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DAL starting Cooper Rush in place of Dak Prescott)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
DAL 23
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CIN

Tee Higgins WR Questionable Concussion
Josh Tupou DT Questionable Shin
Devin Asiasi TE Questionable Quadricep

DAL

Tarell Basham DE Out Thigh
Jayron Kearse S Out Knee
Connor McGovern G Out Ankle
Dak Prescott QB Out right Thumb
Michael Gallup WR Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
DAL 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:41 TD DAL (8:41) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 85-N.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete after Rush rolled out right CIN 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 03:08 FG CIN (3:08) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – DAL 7
  • Q1 00:19 TD DAL (:19) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – DAL 13
  • Q2 00:14 FG DAL (:14) 19-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. CIN 3 – DAL 17
  • Q3 09:45 FG CIN (9:45) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – DAL 17
  • Q3 04:08 FG CIN (4:08) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 9 – DAL 17
  • Q4 03:51 TD CIN (3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 15 – DAL 17
  • Q4 00:03 FG DAL (:03) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. CIN 17 – DAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 85-N.Brown to CIN 39 for 17 yards (30-J.Bates) [98-D.Reader].

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (3:08) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:12) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to DAL 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:35) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 55%

    (5:38) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to DAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%

    (2:19) 5-B.Anger punts 35 yards to CIN 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 20 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:05) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to DAL 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to CIN 49 for 20 yards (51-M.Bailey).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 69%

    (:14) 19-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%

    (9:45) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:11) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CIN 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 41 for 20 yards (23-R.Dowdle).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (4:08) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:56) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to DAL 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:50) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-87-J.Ferguson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (6:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to DAL 19 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs) [11-M.Parsons].

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 14 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:20) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CIN 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (1:09) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to DAL 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 35 for 14 yards (51-M.Bailey).