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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to DAL 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to CIN 49 for 20 yards (51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.55 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 38, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model